Orbit Alpha Issue 16 · 2 Aug 2026

The bottom before the answer.

MARKET OVERVIEW
🌎 The bottom before the answer.

Track every space stock live at Orbit Alpha

SpaceX hit a new all-time low of $107.01 on Monday 28 July. It has now lost more than half its value from the $225.64 peak, is trading 20% below its $135 IPO price, and its market capitalisation has fallen from $1.8 trillion at the listing to $1.44 trillion. Six members of Congress who bought SPCX stock are already underwater. Short sellers have expanded their bearish wager to $26 billion. And the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.21%, compressing the value of every long-duration cash-flow story in the market, space most of all.

This is what the sector looks like at the bottom of its worst drawdown since these stocks became a group. RKLB fell 9% on Tuesday and is now 58% below its May high. ASTS dropped 7% on the same session. LUNR saw Cathie Wood buy nearly a million shares on the same day Deutsche Bank slashed its target in half. The Tema Space Innovators ETF ($NASA) launched this week with SPCX as its top holding at 15.59% and RKLB at 9.94%, giving investors a new pure-play index into a sector that has never been cheaper relative to its operational progress.

But here is why this issue matters more than the last four: every question the sector has been asking since June gets answered in the next seven days. SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company on 4 August. AST SpaceMobile launches BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 on 5 August. The first lockup release covering 911.5 million insider shares triggers on 6 August. Viasat reports Q1 FY2027 the same day. Rocket Lab reports Q2 on 10 August. Intuitive Machines on 13 August. This is not a week to watch. It is the week to watch.

SPACEX (SPCX)

The stock printed a new all-time low of $107.01 on Monday 28 July before stabilising in the $108 to $113 range through the rest of the week, closing Friday at approximately $108. CNBC reported that "Elon Musk stocks have taken a $1.5 trillion hit" heading into the lockup test. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla is considering the sale of its China unit in the event of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, adding corporate-structure complexity to an already uncertain picture. The House Energy Committee demanded a tour of SpaceX's AI data centres in Memphis, reflecting growing Congressional scrutiny of the xAI division's power consumption and data practices.

On the positive side, SpaceX won $1.6 billion in Space Force contract awards on 29 July, reinforcing its dominance in national-security launch. Cathie Wood's ARK funds bought 129,000 shares the same day. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Buy. Early SpaceX investor Chad Anderson told CNBC on 31 July that he remains "long on the stock" and is "not planning to sell after the lockup period."

The 4 August earnings report is the single most important event since the IPO. The market needs to see three things: whether revenue growth is accelerating (Q1 2026 was $4.69 billion, up 15% year-over-year), whether the $4.28 billion quarterly net loss is narrowing, and what the xAI and Starlink subscriber trajectory looks like with full disclosure. Two days later, on 6 August, the first lockup release will make up to 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale. The performance trigger ($175.50 for 5 of 10 trading days) has not been met, so the institutional unlock is 20% rather than 30%. What the earnings say will determine whether the lockup release into a stock at $108 produces a floor or a trapdoor.

ROCKET LAB (RKLB)

The selloff continued. RKLB fell 9% on Tuesday to $60.55, hit as low as $59, and ended the week around $62, down 58% from its May all-time high of $150.23. The stock is now trading roughly 20% below both its 20-day and 200-day simple moving averages, a chart configuration that signals deeply negative momentum.

Two operational catalysts landed during the week. On 30 July, iQPS locked in three additional Electron missions with Rocket Lab, extending the Japanese SAR operator's contracted launches to at least 21 across the programme. The deal deepens a relationship that has already delivered 10 consecutive successful missions and reinforces Electron's position as the dominant dedicated small-launch vehicle globally. Separately, Rocket Lab hosted management meetings with Cantor Fitzgerald in Boston and New York (28 to 30 July) ahead of Q2 earnings on 10 August, suggesting the investor relations push is intensifying into the print. RKLB ended 2025 with $602 million in revenue and had more than $2 billion in backlog as of Q1 2026.

AST SPACEMOBILE (ASTS)

On 28 July, AST SpaceMobile confirmed the launch date for BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13: Wednesday 5 August 2026, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station aboard a Falcon 9 rocket, with a launch window opening at 3:42 a.m. EDT and a backup opportunity at 5:10 a.m. The mission follows the successful June 17 launch of BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10, and the company noted that BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 are "already preparing" for a subsequent flight. A successful deployment would bring the constellation to 12 operational Block 2 satellites (plus the legacy Block 1 fleet), accelerating toward the 25-satellite threshold for non-continuous service and the 45-satellite target for continuous coverage in key markets. The stock fell 7% on Monday alongside the broader selloff but stabilised through the week as the launch confirmation provided a near-term catalyst.

INTUITIVE MACHINES (LUNR)

The signals are pulling in both directions. On 28 July, Cathie Wood's ARK funds bought 983,000 LUNR shares, one of the largest single-day institutional buys in the name this year. The same day, the company confirmed Q2 earnings for 13 August. One day later, Deutsche Bank cut its price target to $20 from $34, citing execution risk, and TipRanks reported a major long-term investor exiting the position. The stock is trading around $12, roughly 70% below the $40.78 consensus target, with the $1.1 billion backlog, $148.3 million NASA CLPS award, and near-space-network contracts still underpinning the fundamental case. Whether the backlog is converting to revenue at the pace the street expects is the question the 13 August earnings print will answer.

VIASAT (VSAT)

On 29 July, Viasat announced that it will report Q1 FY2027 financial results on 4 August, the same day as SpaceX's earnings, with a conference call and webcast to follow. The timing puts Viasat's print alongside the sector's most anticipated event, which may limit the market's bandwidth to react. VSAT remains one of only two space stocks in the green for July (alongside Iridium), benefiting from the Oppenheimer "last major global satellite spectrum play" thesis and the broader rerating of profitable, recurring-revenue satellite operators during the correction.

Takeaway: The space sector is sitting at its lowest prices since these stocks became a group. SPCX is at $108, down 52% from the peak and 20% below IPO. RKLB is at $62, down 58% from its high. ASTS is near December lows. And in the next seven days, every question the market has been asking gets answered. SpaceX's first earnings print arrives on 4 August: is the revenue trajectory strong enough to justify a $1.44 trillion valuation, and is the quarterly loss narrowing or widening? AST's next BlueBird launch flies on 5 August: does the deployment cadence hold, and how close is the constellation to the commercial-service threshold? The first lockup release triggers on 6 August: do insiders sell into a stock at $108, or do they hold? RKLB earnings follow on 10 August. LUNR on 13 August. Firefly on 11 August. The sector has spent eight weeks falling on flow, sentiment, and macro. Starting Monday, it trades on fundamentals. For the first time since June, there will be numbers to argue about rather than narratives. That is either very good or very bad for anyone holding these names, and the next seven days will tell you which.

BROKER PULSE
🚀 Consensus prices

Live prices for all names below at Orbit Alpha Markets

SPACEX (SPCX) · Avg target $236.71

ROCKET LAB (RKLB) · Avg target $114.33

AST SPACEMOBILE (ASTS) · Avg target $83.32

PLANET LABS (PL) · Avg target $40.10

INTUITIVE MACHINES (LUNR) · Avg target $40.78

GLOBALSTAR (GSAT) · Avg target $90.00

FIREFLY AEROSPACE (FLY) · Avg target $48.11

MDA SPACE (MDA) · Avg target $44.20

REDWIRE (RDW) · Avg target $14.88

VIASAT (VSAT) · Avg target $94.56

BLACKSKY TECHNOLOGY (BKSY) · Avg target $40.50

VIRGIN GALACTIC (SPCE) · Avg target $3.52

SPIRE GLOBAL (SPIR) · Avg target $20.88

LAUNCH WATCH
🔭 Launches that could move your portfolio

Full launch calendar with live status at Orbit Alpha Launches

Aug 04 · SpaceX — Starlink (17-53) · Falcon 9 · SLC-4E, Vandenberg SFB, California.

Aug 05 · CASC — Unconfirmed vehicle · Sea Launch, Yellow Sea, China. Unconfirmed payload.

Aug 05 · SpaceX — BlueBird 11-13 · Falcon 9 · SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida. AST SpaceMobile's next three Block 2 direct-to-device satellites. Launch window opens at 3:42 a.m. EDT with a backup at 5:10 a.m. A successful deployment would bring the constellation to 12 operational Block 2 satellites.

Aug 06 · JAXA — Michibiki No. 7 (QZS-7) · H-3 · LA-Y1, Tanegashima Space Center, Japan. Quasi-Zenith Satellite System navigation satellite augmenting GPS coverage in the Asia-Pacific region. H-3 flight no. 9.

Aug 06 · Isar Aerospace — "Onward and Upward" · Spectrum · Andøya Space, Norway. Second test flight of Isar Aerospace's Spectrum launch vehicle, carrying payloads for ESA's "Boost!" programme including Spectrum Flight Two, CyBEEsat, TriSat-S, Platform 6, FramSat-1, and Let It Go.

Aug 08 · SpaceX — Starlink (17-38) · Falcon 9 · SLC-4E, Vandenberg SFB, California.

Aug 09 · CASC — Unconfirmed vehicle (possibly Long March 7A) · LC-201, Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China. Unconfirmed payload.

Aug 10 · SpaceX — Starlink (10-19) · Falcon 9 · SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida.

Aug 12 · SpaceX — Starlink (17-49) · Falcon 9 · SLC-4E, Vandenberg SFB, California.

Aug 17 · CASC — Unconfirmed vehicle (possibly Long March 12) · LC-2, Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China. Unconfirmed payload.

Aug 24 · CASC — Chang'e 7 · Long March 5 · LP-101, Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China. Lunar rover, orbiter, and lander mission.

Aug 27 · Arianespace — MTG-I2 · Ariane 6 · ELA-4, Guiana Space Centre, French Guiana. Third launch of EUMETSAT's third-generation weather satellite.

SENTIMENT SIGNAL
🎯 THE AUGUST GAUNTLET: SIX EARNINGS IN THREE WEEKS, AND WHAT EACH ONE NEEDS TO SHOW

The space sector has spent eight weeks falling on flow, sentiment, and macro. Starting Monday, it trades on fundamentals. Between 4 August and 13 August, six companies across the sector report quarterly earnings: SpaceX, Viasat, MDA, Rocket Lab, Firefly, and Intuitive Machines. AST SpaceMobile launches BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 on 5 August, sandwiched between SpaceX's first earnings print and the first lockup release. This is the most concentrated stretch of fundamental catalysts the sector has faced since it began trading as a group, and the results will determine whether the correction is a buying opportunity or a warning.

This deep dive maps every date, every consensus estimate, what would constitute a beat or a miss, and what the read-through is for the rest of the sector. Clip it and use it all month.

SPACEX (SPCX) — TUESDAY 4 AUGUST, AFTER MARKET CLOSE

The setup. SPCX is trading at approximately $108, down 52% from its $225.64 peak and 20% below its $135 IPO price. Short interest is $26 billion, roughly 29% of the tradeable float. This is SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, and it doubles as the trigger for the first lockup release: up to 911.5 million insider shares become saleable on 6 August, two full trading days after the report.

What the street expects. Visible Alpha consensus projects Q2 revenue of $6.9 billion, driven by the Connectivity segment (Starlink). Zacks pegs it at $6.72 billion. The consensus EPS estimate is a loss of $0.26 per share, but the range is extraordinarily wide: from a loss of $1.26 to a profit of $0.33, reflecting deep disagreement about xAI and Space segment costs. For the full year 2026, HSBC expects revenue to more than double to $38.2 billion from $18.7 billion in 2025.

What a beat looks like. Revenue above $7 billion with Q2 Connectivity margin at or above the 35.9% consensus would signal that Starlink's subscriber ramp (roughly 12 million as of Q1) and average revenue per user are accelerating. If SpaceX narrows the quarterly loss from Q1's $4.28 billion to something closer to $2 billion, it would suggest the path to profitability (consensus expects EPS to turn positive at $0.63 in FY2027) is credible. Any disclosure on xAI compute revenue, particularly confirmation of the reported $920 million per month Google deal and the Anthropic data-centre lease, would reframe the valuation debate entirely.

What a miss looks like. Revenue below $6.5 billion or a quarterly loss exceeding $4 billion would validate the bear case that SpaceX is spending faster than Starlink can earn. If capex guidance is raised materially above the current consensus of $48.7 billion for FY2026 (with projections climbing to $118.4 billion by FY2028), the free-cash-flow-negative trajectory becomes harder to look past. HSBC already projects cumulative cash burn of $106 billion and FCF negative until 2030. Widening losses on a $1.44 trillion market cap, heading into a lockup release, would be the worst possible combination.

The read-through. This is the earnings print that sets the tone for the entire sector through the rest of the summer. A strong report stabilises SPCX and gives every correlated space name room to recover. A weak report, combined with the lockup release two days later, could push the sector into a new leg down. The 911.5 million shares unlocking on 6 August represent roughly $98 billion at current prices. Whether insiders sell into that window depends entirely on what the earnings say about the trajectory.

VIASAT (VSAT) — TUESDAY 4 AUGUST

The setup. Viasat reports Q1 FY2027 on the same day as SpaceX, which may limit market bandwidth to react. VSAT is one of only two space stocks in the green for July, benefiting from Oppenheimer's $140 target and the "last major global satellite spectrum play" thesis.

What the street expects. For FY2026 (the year just ended), Viasat posted $4.6 billion in revenue, $1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $177 million in free cash flow. Analysts are looking for continued margin expansion and ViaSat-3 satellite commissioning updates. Deutsche Bank has a $97 target; Oppenheimer has $140.

What to watch. The Q1 FY2027 print is less about a single number and more about the trajectory. Is EBITDA margin expanding as the ViaSat-3 constellation comes online? Is defence revenue growing on the PTS-G contract? Is the company generating enough free cash flow to support its debt load without further dilution? In a sector where the market is rewarding profitable operators and punishing pre-revenue growth, Viasat's ability to demonstrate cash generation is the thesis.

The read-through. A strong Viasat print reinforces the pattern that has defined the correction: mature, profitable satellite operators with recurring revenue are holding up while high-multiple growth names sell off. It supports the case for MDA and Iridium (via RKLB) as the structural winners.

MDA SPACE (MDA) — THURSDAY 7 AUGUST

The setup. MDA has been the steadiest name in the sector through the correction, underpinned by the Blue Canyon acquisition, the C$688 million CSA contract, the CLS deal, and a business model built on government contracts and recurring revenue rather than narrative.

What to watch. Q2 revenue and the integration timeline for Blue Canyon. Any commentary on the CLS acquisition (expected to close late 2026 or early 2027) and the Globalstar constellation-build programme. MDA guided 2026 net-debt-to-EBITDA at 1.5 to 2.5x, so the leverage trajectory post-M&A is the key financial question. If the company confirms that Blue Canyon is accretive to margins and CLS will double recurring revenue as CEO Greenley stated, it reinforces MDA's position as the sector's most disciplined acquirer.

The read-through. MDA is the proof-of-concept for the "buy real businesses at reasonable multiples" thesis. A clean quarter supports the case that vertical integration through funded M&A is the right model for the sector, as opposed to the high-multiple, pre-revenue approach that the correction has punished.

ROCKET LAB (RKLB) — MONDAY 10 AUGUST, AFTER MARKET CLOSE

The setup. RKLB is trading at approximately $62, down 58% from its $150.23 all-time high. The stock is 20% below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. Options traders expect a 17% move in either direction on earnings. The Iridium acquisition, the $266 million Space Force contract, and the Neutron engine milestone are all in the background.

What the street expects. Q2 revenue consensus is approximately $232 to $237 million, up roughly 60% year-over-year from $144.5 million in Q2 2025. The company guided $225 to $240 million. EPS consensus is a loss of $0.06 to $0.08 per share, improving from a $0.13 loss in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is guided at negative $20 to $26 million.

What a beat looks like. Revenue above $240 million (the top of guidance) with narrowing EBITDA losses would signal that the space-systems business is scaling alongside launch. Any Neutron update that confirms the Q4 2026 first-flight timeline is a major sentiment catalyst, because the Iridium deal's cost-synergy case depends on Neutron being operational. A backlog update above $2.5 billion would show the contract pipeline is still growing despite the stock decline.

What a miss looks like. Revenue below $225 million (the bottom of guidance) or a meaningful widening of EBITDA losses would raise questions about whether the Iridium acquisition is distracting management from core execution. Any delay to the Neutron timeline pushes the cost-synergy thesis further out and hands ammunition to the bears (Piper Sandler's Neutral initiation at $83 cited Neutron execution risk as the primary concern).

The read-through. Rocket Lab is the bellwether for the "growth-stage space company" category. If it beats and guides up, it validates the thesis that these companies are being sold on sentiment, not fundamentals, and the other growth names (ASTS, FLY, LUNR) benefit from the halo. If it misses, the "operational execution is fine, the stock is just cheap" narrative breaks, and the correction has further to run.

FIREFLY AEROSPACE (FLY) — MONDAY 11 AUGUST

The setup. Firefly is the least covered of the reporting names but has had a quietly strong 2026: two CLPS contracts ($144.2 million lunar, $13 million Mars), a $15 million Alpha launch price point that gains relevance as Falcon 9's rideshare programme closes, and European pad construction at Esrange.

What the street expects. Q1 2026 revenue was $80.9 million, up 40% quarter-over-quarter. Full-year guidance is $420 to $450 million. The street will be looking for confirmation that the revenue trajectory is holding and that the CLPS contracts are progressing on schedule.

What to watch. Alpha launch cadence and manifest depth. If Firefly can demonstrate that it has a populated launch manifest extending through 2027 and 2028, it positions the company as one of the beneficiaries of the Falcon 9 rideshare closure. Any commentary on Blue Ghost lunar lander delivery timelines feeds directly into the NASA CLPS pipeline thesis.

The read-through. Firefly is the purest test of whether the small-launch market can sustain an independent business model as Falcon 9's dominance fades. A strong quarter supports the "alternative launch provider" thesis that also benefits Rocket Lab and Arianespace.

INTUITIVE MACHINES (LUNR) — WEDNESDAY 13 AUGUST, BEFORE MARKET OPEN

The setup. LUNR is trading around $12, down roughly 70% from the $40.78 consensus target and 75% from recent highs. Deutsche Bank just cut its target to $20. Cathie Wood bought 983,000 shares the same week. The stock is deeply polarised between institutional bulls who see a $1.1 billion backlog at a $1.5 billion market cap and bears who see a pre-profit lunar company in a sector that is being repriced on fundamentals.

What the street expects. Revenue consensus is approximately $222 million, compared to record Q1 revenue of $186.7 million (driven by the Lanteris acquisition). EPS consensus is a loss of $0.06 to $0.08, improving from a $0.22 loss in the prior year.

What a beat looks like. Revenue above $222 million with positive adjusted EBITDA (which the company delivered for the first time in Q1 2026) would be significant. Any update on the IM-2 lunar mission timeline, the Goonhilly Earth Station integration, and the near-space-network contract pipeline would give investors a reason to believe the backlog is converting. If Intuitive Machines can demonstrate that it is becoming a recurring-revenue space infrastructure company rather than a project-based lunar lander company, the rerating case is strong.

What a miss looks like. Revenue below $180 million or a return to negative adjusted EBITDA would suggest the Q1 beat was a one-off driven by acquisition timing rather than organic momentum. At $12, the stock is pricing in doubt. A miss would confirm it.

The read-through. LUNR is the test case for whether lunar infrastructure is a viable standalone business or a government-dependent niche. The answer has implications for Firefly's CLPS programme and for the broader question of whether NASA's commercial-lunar strategy can sustain multiple public companies.

THE ONE THAT ISN'T EARNINGS: ASTS BLUEBIRD 11-13, TUESDAY 5 AUGUST

Sandwiched between SpaceX's earnings (4 August) and the lockup release (6 August) is AST SpaceMobile's next orbital launch. BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 are scheduled for 3:42 a.m. EDT from Cape Canaveral aboard a Falcon 9. A successful deployment would bring the constellation to 12 operational Block 2 satellites, with BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 already preparing.

This is not an earnings event, but it may be more important than one. The market has priced ASTS on deployment cadence since the BlueBird 7 failure in April 2025. Each successful launch de-risks the path to the 25-satellite non-continuous-service threshold and the 45-satellite continuous-coverage target. A failure, landing into the worst sentiment window the sector has seen, would be devastating. A success would be the strongest possible counterweight to the lockup selling that begins the next morning.

The 72-hour sequence of SPCX earnings (4 August), ASTS launch (5 August), and lockup release (6 August) is the most concentrated stretch of risk and opportunity the sector has faced. The direction the sector takes out of that window will likely hold for the rest of the quarter.

Takeaway: Six earnings prints and one orbital launch in the space of ten days. The sector that has spent two months falling on sentiment is about to face something sentiment cannot argue with: numbers. SpaceX's first public financials will either validate or collapse the bull case for the largest company in the group. Rocket Lab's revenue trajectory will either confirm or undercut the Iridium acquisition's logic. Intuitive Machines will either prove or disprove that its backlog converts. And AST SpaceMobile's launch will either keep the deployment cadence intact or break it.

The opportunity for investors is that every one of these stocks is trading at 50 to 70% below its 2026 high. If the earnings are strong across the group, the rebound from these levels could be sharp, because the short interest is elevated, the positioning is bearish, and the institutional holders who want to buy the dip are waiting for exactly this kind of fundamental confirmation. The risk is equally concentrated: weak earnings, a launch failure, and heavy lockup selling in the same window would extend the correction into territory that tests whether some of these companies can sustain their capital plans.

The next ten days will answer the question the last eight weeks have been asking. The calendar is set. The estimates are published. What remains is execution.

Previous: Issue 15: Starship flew. The stock didn't care. · Next: Issue 17: $7.8 billion in revenue. The only space stock that fell.