Orbit Alpha Issue 7 · 31 May 2026

The biggest IPO in history drops June 12. SPCX ≠ SPCE.

MARKET OVERVIEW
🌎 The biggest IPO in history drops June 12. SPCX ≠ SPCE.

Track every space stock live at Orbit Alpha

The week opened with the SpaceX IPO roadshow timeline snapping into focus. Reuters reported the institutional roadshow is targeting a 4 June launch, with pricing as early as 11 June and Nasdaq trading under ticker SPCX as early as 12 June. That ticker matters: it sits one letter away from Virgin Galactic's SPCE, and as the IPO date narrows, retail confusion between the two has become a measurable force in price action — a dynamic worth watching closely. The S-1 confirmed $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and $4.7 billion in Q1 2026, with Starlink's Connectivity segment delivering $3.26 billion in Q1 revenue alone at $2.09 billion in adjusted EBITDA. Reports also suggest SpaceX is allocating up to 30% of shares to retail — millions of new space-focused traders are about to enter the tape, and the proxy names are pricing for it.

Then on Thursday, Bloomberg reported SpaceX had trimmed its valuation target to at least $1.8 trillion, down from the $2 trillion-plus earlier ambition. The space sector slipped immediately. Elon Musk disputed the report on X within hours, calling it false, and the stocks recovered most of the ground heading into Friday. The target raise of up to $75 billion remains intact, which would make this the largest IPO in financial history.

Against that backdrop, the week produced concentrated company-level news across the listed names — three major contract wins, two acquisition closes, a launch-partner explosion, a successful glide flight, and a funding event.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Rocket Lab had the strongest fundamental week of any listed space company. On 26 May, it completed the acquisition of Motiv Space Systems, now rebranded as Rocket Lab Robotics. Motiv built the robotic arm on NASA's Perseverance rover — the most capable ever deployed on Mars — and the deal brings in-house the design and manufacturing of solar array drive assemblies, antenna gimbals, and precision mechanisms essential for orbital data centres and mega-constellations. CEO Sir Peter Beck called it the final gap in Rocket Lab's vertical integration strategy. The next day, 27 May, Rocket Lab passed the System Requirements Review for the SDA's Tracking Layer Tranche 3 constellation, tied to its existing $816 million SDA contract. That milestone established Rocket Lab's Lightning satellite platform as the technical baseline for the program and sent RKLB up more than 7% in premarket trading. Total SDA awards now exceed $1.3 billion.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

ASTS was the week's most volatile name. On 26–27 May, the stock surged 8% in a single session to a 52-week high at $133.80 as investors focused on the imminent mid-June Falcon 9 launch of BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 — all three confirmed at Cape Canaveral and in final integration. The company maintains its target of roughly 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026. The mood reversed sharply on 28 May when a Blue Origin New Glenn test rocket exploded during engine testing at Cape Canaveral's LC-36A pad, apparently destroying the complex. It was the second major New Glenn setback in under two months — BlueBird 7 had been lost in April after an upper-stage anomaly on NG-3. The mid-June Falcon 9 launch is unaffected, but Blue Origin held multi-launch agreements for future Block 2 BlueBird deployments. Deutsche Bank piled on with a downgrade and a price-target cut to $106. ASTS closed Friday at $113.41, down 14.79%, on volume 159% above its three-month average.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR)

LUNR delivered the week's most whipsawed price action. Earlier in May the company reported record Q1 revenue of $186.7 million, nearly three-fold year-over-year, with a $1.1 billion backlog. On 26 May the stock briefly surged above $45 before crashing after NASA announced that Astrolab and Lunar Outpost — not Intuitive Machines — had won the Lunar Terrain Vehicle contracts, with Blue Origin selected for vehicle delivery. The LTV award had been a high-conviction near-term catalyst flagged by Cantor Fitzgerald days earlier. The stock then recovered and hit a fresh 52-week high of $46.70 on Thursday 28 May alongside broader sector strength, before pulling back with the group on the Bloomberg valuation report Friday.

Planet Labs (PL)

Planet Labs traded squarely as a momentum name. The stock ran from the upper-$30s to a 52-week high of $51.76 mid-week before consolidating, with daily action repeatedly showing higher highs and aggressive dip-buying near the low-$40s. The setup is driven by sector enthusiasm plus a fast-approaching Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings print scheduled for 4 June, the same day SpaceX's roadshow is expected to begin. Earlier in May, Wedbush raised its price target to $50 from $40, and the company released first-light images from the latest Pelican launch. PL also disclosed plans for a SWIR-only Tanager spacecraft built with Carbon Mapper and JPL support, targeting methane and trace-gas monitoring with five times the area coverage of earlier Tanagers, a 2028-plus revenue story.

BlackSky (BKSY)

BKSY had a quieter but constructive week. On 28 May the company announced a seven-figure multi-year renewal contract, following an earlier May government Gen-2 subscription win and a $250 million at-the-market equity program disclosed 22 May. The Jefferies Virtual Space Summit (26 May) and Craig-Hallum conference (28 May) gave management three institutional touchpoints inside the week. The 2026 revenue guide of $130–150 million and recent target hikes, Jefferies to $50, Deutsche Bank to $35, Oppenheimer to $50, leave BKSY one of the most consensus-bullish names in the sector heading into June.

Redwire (RDW)

Redwire had its strongest week in three years. The stock hit a 52-week high of $26.60 on Thursday and was pacing its best weekly performance since early 2023. On 29 May, Redwire announced it will supply Digital Sun Sensor navigation technology for NASA's Dragonfly mission, a rotorcraft that will travel 3.6 billion miles to Saturn's moon Titan, with a launch window targeting 2028. The contract came through Johns Hopkins APL. Earlier in the month, Redwire secured a $15 million follow-on Army order for Stalker UAS systems and an eight-figure multi-year NATO contract for the Penguin Mk3 tactical drone. Q1 closed with a record $498.1 million backlog and reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $450–500 million.

Momentus (MNTS)

Momentus priced and closed a $25 million private placement during the week. On 27 May the company announced the pricing, 2,173,420 shares at $8.50 plus pre-funded warrants for up to 768,580 more shares with existing institutional investors, and the placement closed on 28 May. The raise leaves Momentus with approximately $76 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The dilution comes at materially higher prices than its prior April and January raises ($3.75 and $5.40 respectively), and MNTS now sits debt-free after retiring its remaining convertible note in April. The company's next Vigoride orbital service vehicle mission is already fully subscribed with NASA-awarded contracts.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

SPCE was one of the week's biggest movers, climbing more than 80% in five sessions to an all-time intraday high of $5.58 on Friday 29 May. The operational catalyst was concrete: VSS Unity completed a successful glide flight at Spaceport America on 27 May, marking Virgin Galactic's return to active flight-test operations after a two-year pause and pushing shares up 7.7% on the day, then 19.5% on 28 May with a further 14% after-hours. Management reaffirmed Q3 2026 flight testing and Q4 2026 commercial spaceflight on the new Delta-class SpaceShip, and a federal court granted preliminary approval to the derivative-suit settlement on 28 May, clearing a multi-year overhang. The harder-to-model force is the SPCX–SPCE ticker collision: with short interest near 23% and the SpaceX IPO retail allocation reported at up to 30%, SPCE is positioned to absorb misdirected order flow into the 11–12 June listing, then face a sharp unwind risk on the other side as confusion clears and capital rotates into the genuine name.

MDA Space (MDA)

MDA had no significant company-issued news during the week itself, but the stock continued to grind to fresh highs on sector flows. MDA-T hit a 52-week high of CAD $67.13 on 28 May, with the NYSE-listed MDA shares topping $47.04 the day before, both new highs since the US dual-listing in March. The move came on no incremental news, suggesting MDA is increasingly being treated as a high-quality, profitable counterweight within space portfolios as the SpaceX IPO approaches: the only listed pure-play space name with a $3.7 billion backlog, positive adjusted EBITDA, and consistent year-over-year revenue growth (Q1 2026 results, reported 7 May, showed revenue +32% YoY).

Spire Global (SPIR)

Spire posted one of the sharpest weekly moves in the sector, up roughly 27%, after rolling out an AI-enhanced energy forecast stack on its Cirrus platform. The headline product is Spire AI-S2S, a 200-member generative AI sub-seasonal model trained on Spire's proprietary GNSS radio occultation data. In independent validation against ECMWF reanalysis (1 January – 15 February 2026), Spire's AI-S2S delivered 14.2% better performance on surface temperature forecasts at weeks 3–6, the hardest range in public forecasting and the most commercially valuable window for energy traders. The product launches intraday-to-45-day forecast coverage in a single trader-grade interface, plus API delivery. The launch comes against a difficult backdrop, the Canadian Space Agency-paused $52.7 million WildFireSat contract earlier in May was equivalent to roughly nine months of 2025 revenue.

Firefly Aerospace (FLY)

Firefly's week had two distinct legs. On 26 May the company announced a $75 million subcontract from NASA's JPL for the MoonFall mission, Firefly's Elytra spacecraft will deliver four drones to the Moon's south pole on a 45-day lunar transit, with the drones then capable of multiple propulsive hops (Ingenuity-style) over a single 14-day lunar day to map permanently shadowed regions and survey for water ice. Launch is targeted no earlier than 2028. On the same day, Firefly filed a prospectus supplement registering 11,111,116 shares for resale by selling securityholders tied to the SciTec Innovations acquisition, then on 28 May priced a 4,000,000-share public offering of its own. The mix of contract momentum and dilution risk has the stock range-bound near $46–49 despite materially positive fundamentals: $80.9 million Q1 revenue, 2026 guidance of $420–450 million, and a $1.4 billion backlog after SciTec.

Takeaway: The week of 25–31 May was defined by two forces, the SpaceX roadshow tightening into a 4 June launch, and a concentrated burst of company-level news across the listed sector. Rocket Lab delivered two binding milestones in consecutive days. ASTS's week became a case study in launch-dependency risk: a 52-week high followed by its worst single session in months after Blue Origin's second New Glenn setback in two months. LUNR and PL both made fresh year-highs on Thursday before the Friday valuation pullback. Virgin Galactic posted the most explosive move in the group on the back of a successful Unity glide flight and an SPCX/SPCE ticker dynamic that's set to intensify into the IPO. Spire breakout on its AI weather product, while Firefly and Momentus used the strength window to raise capital. MDA continued grinding to fresh 52-week highs on sector flows alone. The Bloomberg valuation report on Friday, disputed by Musk, was the macro event of the week, and the speed of the recovery underlined that the SpaceX pre-IPO trade remains intact. The asymmetric setup heading into 11–12 June is now well-defined: amplification on the way up, rotation risk on the way down.

BROKER PULSE
🚀 Consensus prices

Live prices for all names below at Orbit Alpha Markets

ROCKET LAB (RKLB) · Buy · Avg target $103.91 · 18 analysts

AST SPACEMOBILE (ASTS) · Hold · Avg target $82.24 · 11 analysts

INTUITIVE MACHINES (LUNR) · Buy · Avg target $38.00 · 9 analysts

PLANET LABS (PL) · Buy · Avg target $35.50 · 11 analysts

BLACKSKY TECHNOLOGY (BKSY) · Strong Buy · Avg target $29.00 · 5 analysts

REDWIRE (RDW) · Buy · Avg target $14.44 · 10 analysts

MOMENTUS (MNTS) · Hold · Avg target $1.50 · 1 analyst

VIRGIN GALACTIC (SPCE) · Hold · Avg target $3.55 · 7 analysts

MDA SPACE (MDA) · Strong Buy · Avg target $44.33 · 3 analysts

SPIRE GLOBAL (SPIR) · Strong Buy · Avg target $15.80 · 5 analysts

FIREFLY AEROSPACE (FLY) · Buy · Avg target $47.13 · 9 analysts

LAUNCH WATCH
🔭 Launches that could move your portfolio

Full launch calendar with live status at Orbit Alpha Launches

Jun 3 · SpaceX — Starlink (10-43) · Falcon 9 · Cape Canaveral SFS SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida. Booster: B1090.

Jun 3 · SpaceX — Starlink (17-47) · Falcon 9 · Vandenberg SFB SLC-4E, Vandenberg SFB, California. Booster: B1088.

Jun 4 · CASC — TBD · Long March 6A · Taiyuan LC-9, Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, China. Unconfirmed payload.

Jun 5 · CASC — TBD · Long March 8 · Wenchang LC-1, Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, China. Unconfirmed payload.

Jun 8 · SpaceX — Starlink (10-35) · Falcon 9 · Cape Canaveral SFS SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida. Booster: B1067.

Jun 10 · JAXA — VEP-5 · H-3 · Tanegashima LA-Y2, Tanegashima Space Center, Japan. With STARS-X and BRO 19.

Jun 10 · ISRO — EOS-05 · GSLV-II · Satish Dhawan SLP, Satish Dhawan Space Centre, India. GISAT-2 geo-imaging satellite for rapid disaster response.

Jun 10 · SpaceX — Starlink (17-44) · Falcon 9 · Vandenberg SFB SLC-4E, Vandenberg SFB, California. Booster: B1071.

Jun (NET) · SpaceX — Globalstar 2-R Mission 1 · Falcon 9 · Cape Canaveral SFS SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida. Booster: B1090. First of the Globalstar 2-R replenishment fleet, direct catalyst for GSAT.

Jun (NET) · Rocket Lab — "The Grain Goddess Provides" · Electron · Mahia Peninsula Rocket Lab Launch Complex, Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand. 8th Electron launch for Japanese imaging company iQPS, deploying one SAR satellite to a 575 km orbit.

Jun (NET) · Isar Aerospace — "Onward and Upward" · Spectrum · Andøya Space Launch Pad, Andøya Space, Norway. Second test flight of Spectrum carrying ESA "Boost!" payloads including CyBEEsat, TriSat-S, Platform 6, FramSat-1 and others.

Mid-Jun · SpaceX — AST SpaceMobile BlueBirds 8, 9 & 10 · Falcon 9 · Cape Canaveral SFS SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS, Florida. All three satellites confirmed at the Cape and in final integration. Portfolio-moving event for ASTS.

SENTIMENT SIGNAL
🎯 DEEP DIVE · MDA SPACE (NYSE: MDA · TSX: MDA)

The only listed pure-play space company actually making money

A 57-year-old Canadian engineering firm just became the most overlooked SpaceX-IPO trade on the board, and Canada's government is about to spend tens of billions making sure the world notices.

By the Numbers (Q1 2026)

Revenue: $464M · +32% YoY
Adj EBITDA: $91M · 19.5% margin
Backlog: $3.7B · visibility into 2027+
Pipeline: $40B in identified opportunities (~$10B already down-selected)

Most People Aren’t Even Aware of MDA…

Most retail space investors have never opened an MDA chart. That's the opportunity. While Rocket Lab, AST and Planet hoover up the YouTube oxygen, MDA quietly built the largest non-SpaceX commercial satellite production line in North America, and unlike every other name on your watchlist, it does it at a profit.

Q1 2026: revenue up 32%, EBITDA up 32%, 19.5% margin, $3.7 billion backlog. Read that line twice. There is not another listed pure-play space company that can write that sentence.

57 Years of Receipts

1969 · Two engineers found MacDonald, Dettwiler in a Vancouver basement.
1981 · Canadarm debuts on Space Shuttle STS-2. Canada becomes a space nation.
2001 · Canadarm2 installs on the ISS — still operating today.
2012 · Acquires Space Systems/Loral — becomes a satellite manufacturing prime.
2020 · Spun out of Maxar with a fresh balance sheet and a new name: MDA.
2021 · Lists on TSX.
2023 · Wins 198-satellite Telesat Lightspeed contract — the LEO megacon prize.
2026 · NYSE dual-listing (March), new 185k sq ft Montréal plant (May), Q1 monster print (May 7), 52-week highs (this week).

"We're not a story stock. We're a prime contractor with a $3.7 billion backlog who happens to operate in the most exciting sector on Earth."

Three Business, One Moat

Satellite Systems ($313M, +41%) is the engine. MDA is the prime contractor for two of the largest non-SpaceX LEO constellations in the Western world, Telesat Lightspeed (198 satellites) and Globalstar's next-gen network. Q1 saw the first Globalstar satellites delivered and production-ready chips received for Lightspeed.

Robotics & Space Operations ($92M, +18%) is the Canadarm franchise. Canadarm3 is being built for NASA's Lunar Gateway, delivery NET 2029. This is the closest thing in the listed market to a regulated-utility space business.

Geointelligence ($59M, +15%) is the future kicker. MDA's CHORUS Earth observation constellation is targeted to begin launching late 2026, competing directly with BKSY, PL and Maxar, but on hardware MDA owns end-to-end.

Canada - A Procurement Supercycle Nobody is Talking About

This is the part analysts are missing entirely. Canada has declared space sovereignty a national priority, and MDA is the only company positioned to capture the majority of what follows.

The Royal Canadian Air Force has confirmed 9 major military space projects representing ~$26 billion CAD of committed government investment over 20 years, with orders to accelerate spending and keep 70% in Canada. That mandate has a single obvious beneficiary.

The specific programs not yet in any analyst model:

ESCP-P (Polar) · Canada's Arctic SATCOM project. A >$5B CAD program expected to be awarded to MDA and Telesat in the coming months — confirmed by the Telesat CEO, reiterated by the MDA CEO, and validated by Brigadier General Brendan Cook at Space Canada Horizon on 20 May.

DESSP · Canada's Defence Enhanced Surveillance from Space project. Another >$5B CAD program to replace and improve RADARSAT capability. MDA is Canada's RADARSAT/SAR heritage prime. The RCAF has explicitly stated existing RADARSAT capacity is insufficient for future military needs.

RADARSAT Replenishment · The Canadian Space Agency confirmed a $1.012B CAD program over 15 years for next-gen SAR. MDA is the heritage prime.

MDA MIDNIGHT · MDA's space control defence platform, on-orbit inspection, threat detection, cooperative capture, satellite refuelling, and de-orbit capability. Think bodyguard satellites for high-value space assets.

Sapphire Replacement · RFI already completed, RFP expected later this year for an optical space domain awareness system. MDA was the previous mission prime.

Lunar Surface Robotics · CSA is pivoting toward lunar surface mobility, rover fleets, cargo unloading, infrastructure assembly using Canadarm heritage. MDA is one of three companies contracted for Lunar Utility Vehicle concept work, with follow-on awards flagged as imminent.

ESA Access · Canada committed $528.5M to ESA programmes, opening high-value European bids to Canadian primes. CSA is actively helping Canadian companies write winning RFPs.

Management has guided to ~$1.3B revenue exiting 2026, with analysts projecting ~$1.85B in 2029. None of those estimates include a single dollar from ESCP-P, DESSP, RADARSAT replenishment, or MIDNIGHT. The pipeline is $40B — with ~$10B already down-selected — and that excludes future commercial constellation wins or the international M&A management has explicitly flagged in the US, Europe, and UK.

Why Now: The SpaceX IPO Trade Nobody is Talking About

Every retail-recognised space name has been bid up on SpaceX IPO reflexivity. RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL all sit near 52-week highs. The pre-IPO hunt for "the next thing" is in full swing.

MDA hit fresh 52-week highs this week on the same sector flow, but from a profile that nobody's narrative-pricing yet. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is up ~58%. The forward multiple sits below 18x earnings, not "below sector," below the S&P 500. And ~90% of the backlog is non-US, which limits tariff and Trump-era trade risk to a remarkable degree for a defence-adjacent name.

The valuation gap is striking. On EV/2029 sales, the sector is currently pricing:

RKLB ~40x · ASTS ~11x · PL ~18x · BKSY ~6x · RDW ~5x · MDA ~3.3x

MDA is the only consistently profitable name on that list, and it's trading at the lowest multiple. Taking even the midpoint of those peer multiples implies ~90% upside from current levels.

When SPCX debuts and the retail rotation begins, profitability and backlog become the next discriminator. MDA is the only name on the board with both, and a sovereign government procurement supercycle as the kicker.

How it Actually Compares

MDA · Q1 Rev +32% · EBITDA +$91M
Rocket Lab · Q1 Rev +93% · EBITDA -$26M
AST SpaceMobile · Q1 Rev huge · EBITDA -$48M
Planet Labs · Q1 Rev +10% · EBITDA +$3M
Redwire · Q1 Rev +58% · EBITDA -$78M
Intuitive Mach. · Q1 Rev +3x · EBITDA -$11M

Bull Case

› Only profitable pure-play. Re-rates on rotation.
› $3.7B backlog = ~2.5 years of revenue locked in.
› ~$10B in down-selected pipeline opportunities not yet in estimates.
› ESCP-P + DESSP = potential >$10B CAD in sovereign contracts not modelled.
› NYSE listing (Mar '26) brings US institutional flow.
› Telesat Lightspeed launches start ramping H2 '26.
› CHORUS commercial launch = call option on EO market.
› 70% of $26B CAD Canadian military space spend must stay in Canada.

Bear Case

› Customer concentration: 2 LEO contracts = most of near-term growth.
› Backlog conversion is high, needs new wins to refill.
› Sovereign contracts can slip; government timelines are notoriously elastic.
› SpaceX vertical integration is a long-term structural threat.
› Free cash flow swung negative in Q1 (timing-driven).
› 3 sell-side analysts. Liquidity is still thin on NYSE.
› If SPCX IPO disappoints, the whole sector de-rates.

Takeaway: Every other name on your watchlist needs to grow into a story. MDA already is the story, it just hasn't been told to a US audience yet. The commercial case alone (profitable, $3.7B backlog, 19.5% EBITDA margin, cheapest multiple in the sector) makes it interesting. Layer in a Canadian government that has committed $26 billion CAD to military space and told its agencies to accelerate, with 70% mandated to stay in Canada and MDA as the only scaled domestic prime, and you have a setup that institutional money hasn't priced. The 12 June SPCX debut rotates capital into the listed space complex. The names that hold the bid afterwards will need a backlog, a margin, and a reason to own them beyond narrative. MDA is the only one that brings all three, plus a sovereign procurement supercycle that isn't in a single analyst model yet.

Next: Issue 8: Caught between last week's explosion and next week's IPO.